In Massachusetts, nearly 50 percent of the state’s 3.5 million working-age adults (25-64 years old) hold at least a two-year degree, according to 2008 Census data. This compares to a national average of around 38 percent.
Attainment rates in Massachusetts are increasing modestly, even though the proportion of degree-holding young adults — those 25-34 years old — mirrors that of the overall adult population. If Massachusetts continues to increase attainment at the rate it did over the last decade (2000-2008), the state will have a college-attainment rate of 58.8 percent in 2025 — still short of the Big Goal of 60 percent.
However, this gap can be closed. By increasing production by 2,663 associate or bachelor’s degrees each year between now and 2025 — an annual increase of 3.3 percent — Massachusetts will reach the Big Goal. Also, given economic realities, Lumina believes it essential that the state increase degree attainment even further. Massachusetts’ economy increasingly depends on the skills and knowledge of its residents, and there is no surer way to build a prosperous future for the state than to increase the number of residents who are college graduates.
One excellent place to begin looking for additional graduates is in the ranks of Massachusetts residents who have completed some college without earning a degree. In 2008, more than 600,000 Massachusetts residents fit into this category — representing nearly 17 percent of the state’s adult population. If only a small portion of this group could be enticed to return to college to complete either a two- or four-year degree, it would go a long way to helping Massachusetts reach the goal of 60 percent higher education attainment.
Also, by looking at the geographic distribution of college graduates within the state (see chart on the following page), policymakers and other stakeholders can begin to work strategically and systematically to close achievement gaps. They can target counties and regions that show the greatest need and focus their efforts on those specific areas.
How do we know that Massachusetts’ economy will demand more college graduates? A recent analysis by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce provides the answer. According to the center’s analysis of occupation data and workforce trends, 68 percent of Massachusetts’ jobs will require postsecondary education by 2018. Between now and 2018, Massachusetts will need to fill more than 1 million vacancies resulting from job creation, worker retirements and other factors. Of these job vacancies, 707,000 will require postsecondary credentials, while only 357,000 are expected to be filled by high school graduates or dropouts.
It will be impossible to reach the Big Goal without significantly increasing college success among the groups that can accurately be called 21st century students, including working adults, low-income and first-generation students and students of color.
Attainment gaps among racial and ethnic groups have persisted in Massachusetts for decades, and the most recent degree-attainment rates for the state continue to reflect such gaps (see bar graph at left). Closing these attainment gaps is clearly a challenge, but it is one that can and must be met.
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