In New Mexico, 33 percent of the state’s 1 million working-age adults (25-64 years old) hold at least a two-year degree, according to 2008 Census data. This compares to a national average of around 38 percent. Attainment rates in New Mexico are increasing modestly, even though the proportion of degree-holding young adults — those 25-34 years old — mirrors that of the overall adult population. If New Mexico continues to increase attainment at the rate it did over the last decade (2000-2008), the state will have a college-attainment rate of 37.9 percent in 2025 — far short of the Big Goal of 60 percent.
However, this gap can be closed. The key is to begin increasing degree production, and to continue to increase it each year until 2025. By increasing production by 1,897 associate or bachelor’s degrees each year between now and 2025 — an annual increase of 7 percent — New Mexico will reach the Big Goal.
One excellent place to begin looking for these additional graduates is in the ranks of New Mexico residents who have completed some college without earning a degree. In 2008, about 260,000 New Mexico residents fit into this category — representing nearly 26 percent of the state’s adult population. If only a small portion of this group could be enticed to return to college to complete either a two- or four-year degree, it would go a long way to helping New Mexico reach the goal of 60 percent higher education attainment.
Also, by looking at the geographic distribution of college graduates within the state (see chart on the following page), policymakers and other stakeholders can begin to work strategically and systematically to close achievement gaps. They can target counties and regions that show the greatest need and focus their efforts on those specific areas.
How do we know that New Mexico’s economy will demand more college graduates? A recent analysis by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce provides the answer. According to the center’s analysis of occupation data and workforce trends, 58 percent of New Mexico’s jobs will require postsecondary education by 2018. Between now and 2018, New Mexico will need to fill about 292,000 vacancies resulting from job creation, worker retirements and other factors. Of these job vacancies, 166,000 will require postsecondary credentials, while only about 125,000 are expected to be filled by high school graduates or dropouts.
It will be impossible to reach the Big Goal without significantly increasing college success among the groups that can accurately be called 21st century students, including working adults, low-income and first-generation students and students of color.
Attainment gaps among racial and ethnic groups have persisted in New Mexico for decades, and the most recent degree-attainment rates for the state continue to reflect such gaps (see bar graph at left). Closing these attainment gaps is clearly a challenge, but it is one that can and must be met.
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