In North Dakota, 45 percent of the state’s nearly 325,000 working-age adults (25-64 years old) hold at least a two-year degree, according to 2008 Census data. This compares to a national average of around 38 percent.
Attainment rates in North Dakota are increasing modestly, even though the proportion of degree-holding young adults — those 25-34 years old — mirrors that of the overall adult population. If North Dakota continues to increase attainment at the rate it did over the last decade (2000-2008), the state will have a college-attainment rate of 62 percent in 2025 — which will exceed the Big Goal of 60 percent.
However, given the economic realities facing North Dakota, Lumina believes it essential not merely to maintain the current rate of degree production, but to increase it. In a competitive environment, North Dakota’s economy increasingly depends on the skills and knowledge of its residents. There is no surer way to build a prosperous future for the state than to increase the number of residents who are college graduates.
One excellent place to begin looking for additional graduates is in the ranks of North Dakota residents who have completed some college without earning a degree. In 2008, 79,000 North Dakota residents fit into this category — representing more than 24 percent of the state’s adult population. If only a small portion of this group could be enticed to return to college to complete either a two- or four-year degree, it would go a long way to helping North Dakota reach the goal of 60 percent higher education attainment.
Also, by looking at the geographic distribution of college graduates within the state (see chart on the following page), policymakers and other stakeholders can begin to work strategically and systematically to close achievement gaps. They can target counties and regions that show the greatest need and focus their efforts on those specific areas.
How do we know that North Dakota’s economy will demand more college graduates? A recent analysis by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce provides the answer. According to the center’s analysis of occupation data and workforce trends, 70 percent of North Dakota’s jobs will require postsecondary education by 2018. Between now and 2018, North Dakota will need to fill about 120,000 vacancies resulting from job creation, worker retirements and other factors. Of these job vacancies, 80,000 will require postsecondary credentials, while only 40,000 are expected to be filled by high school graduates or dropouts.
It will be impossible to reach the Big Goal without significantly increasing college success among the groups that can accurately be called 21st century students, including working adults, low-income and first-generation students and students of color.
Attainment gaps among racial and ethnic groups have persisted in North Dakota for decades, and the most recent degree-attainment rates for the state continue to reflect such gaps (see bar graph at left). Closing these attainment gaps is clearly a challenge, but it is one that can and must be met.
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