We’re asking the question, “Do U.S. colleges and universities have more teaching capacity than they are actually using?”
Are enough students enrolled to actually match the number of instructors, programs, classrooms, and academic resources they have built? This Lumina-funded report finds that in many cases, the answer is increasingly “no.”
The main reason for this mismatch is that enrollment has declined or plateaued, while many colleges have continued to add instructors, programs, and services to compete for students. As a result, the higher education system was operating at about 78% of its estimated teaching capacity in 2025, leaving room for roughly 4.2 million additional full-time-equivalent students.
If current trends continue, that unused capacity will only grow over the next decade.
The problem is not universal. Some states and types of institutions use their capacity more fully than others, and some colleges may intentionally maintain smaller class sizes or extra resources as part of their mission. But when too much capacity sits unused for too long, it can create financial pressure, especially for schools already struggling with fewer students, rising costs, and changing workforce needs.
This report from EY Parthenon does not offer one universal fix. Instead, it suggests that college and state leaders look carefully at their own situations and consider options such as attracting more adult learners, helping more students stay enrolled, updating or combining low-demand programs, sharing services with other institutions, and, in some cases, making difficult decisions about mergers or closures. The big takeaway is that higher education needs to plan more deliberately for a future with fewer traditional-age students and a changing demand for education and training.