Every year, the release of new Stronger Nation data offers a snapshot of where the country stands on education after high school. This year’s release feels different.
Not because Americans have stopped believing in education, but because they are asking a sharper question.
Does it actually deliver value?
Rising costs, student debt, and headlines questioning whether college is “worth it” have changed the national conversation. People want proof. They want to know whether education leads to better pay, stronger careers, and real economic opportunity.
The latest Stronger Nation data answer that question directly and define the benchmark the country will build from.
Where we stand, and where we must go
Currently, 43.6 percent of working Americans hold a credential that delivers value. That number is not a verdict. It is a baseline. It shows where the country is starting as it works toward the new national value goal set by Lumina Foundation last year: By 2040, 75 percent of adults in the U.S. labor force should have a degree or credential beyond high school that leads to economic prosperity.
“Value” is the key word here. Lumina defines a credential with value as one that leads to earnings at least 15 percent higher than someone with only a high school diploma. It is a clear, consistent way to move the conversation from opinions to outcomes.
The question now is not simply who has a credential. It is whether that credential pays off.
Progress that changed the stakes
To understand why this shift matters, it helps to remember how far we’ve come.
Fifteen years ago, the country’s challenge was access. In 2009, only about 39 percent of working-age Americans had a degree or credential beyond high school. That limited opportunity for individuals and held back the economy.
Since then, the nation has made real progress. Today, nearly 55 percent of working-age adults have education or training beyond high school. That represents millions more people with post-high school credentials than a generation ago.
That progress has had a powerful economic impact. As labor economist Jeff Strohl explains, the increase in attainment over the past decade alone is projected to generate about $14.2 trillion in gains to the U.S. economy over the life cycle of those individuals.
“That’s wages, productivity, and improvements in wellbeing,” Strohl says. “It strengthens the economy, and it improves people’s lives.”
But progress changed the stakes.
Once access expanded, expectations shifted. If more Americans are earning credentials, then those credentials must consistently deliver opportunity. That brings us to the next, more precise question.
Which credentials are driving value, and where are the gaps?
Where value is strongest and where it is uneven
The Stronger Nation data show that outcomes vary across credential types.
Bachelor’s degrees remain the most consistent pathway to economic value. About 70 percent of people with a bachelor’s degree earn at least that 15 percent wage premium, and many earn substantially more.
Strohl notes that public skepticism often ignores how returns grow over time.
“The bachelor’s degree really begins to flourish after about age 35,” he says. “Debt is paid off, and what follows is profit across the life cycle. On average, it pays off.”
Short-term credentials, certificates, and associate degrees tell a more uneven story. Roughly half meet the earnings benchmark, while the rest do not.
That variation does not suggest these pathways lack importance. It signals something else: alignment matters.
“These credentials tend to be very specific,” Strohl explains. “They have to be laser beam aligned with the job someone is going into. Attaching a value metric helps sort what’s working from what’s not and gives better information to students.”
He also points out that many workers use short-term credentials on top of degrees, not instead of them, to upskill and advance over time.
The adaptability advantage
Another question that comes up often is the value of liberal arts and general education. Strohl pushes back on the idea that these degrees lack relevance.
“If you look at the data, the humanities sit right in the middle of the bachelor’s wage distribution,” he says. “People commonly do quite well.”
More importantly, general education builds adaptability. Strohl describes it as part of the “secret sauce” of the U.S. economy. It helps workers apply knowledge across changing roles, industries, and technologies.
That adaptability will matter even more as artificial intelligence reshapes work.
“AI is a tool,” Strohl says. “If you don’t have the base knowledge, you won’t know how to use it. That foundation still comes from education after high school.”
Now, the real work begins
The Stronger Nation release makes one thing clear: Education beyond high school still matters. But what matters most now is whether it delivers real value.
The data show progress worth building on, gaps that demand attention, and opportunities for states and communities to act. Lumina has set a clear destination, and as Strohl puts it, states are the ones piloting the ship.
The next chapter is not just about more credentials. It is about better outcomes, clearer information, and education that delivers on its promise for individuals and the nation.