When Lumina Foundation embraced Goal 2040—our national call for 75 percent of working-age adults to hold a college degree or other credential of value—we weren’t simply raising a number. We were reframing the purpose of higher education around a single, urgent idea: value. In this moment of skepticism about cost, purpose, and outcomes, it’s not enough to help more people enroll or even complete. States need to help people complete credentials that pay off—in wages, career mobility, and community vitality.
I’ve spent my career working with state leaders who are trying to make that promise real, and we’ve made progress: Since Lumina’s first national goal in 2008, 49 states set their own attainment targets. That simple act—naming a goal—changed the conversation from access alone to access plus completion, and it put adult learners and other often-overlooked populations on the map. The results? National attainment rose from 38 percent to 55 percent. This means hundreds of thousands more people with the skills to contribute to their communities and economies.
Now, as we move forward toward the new goal, my colleague Courtney B. Francis and I are partnering with state teams through Lumina’s State Attainment Collaborative, a year-long effort working with a diverse group of states who are adopting or updating value-centered attainment goals. As we support states through the Collaborative, the work they are undertaking is threefold:
- Developing state-specific measures of value.
- Refining or resetting goals so they highlight higher education’s value from the start.
- Leverage those goals to drive statewide policy, practice, and investment.
This isn’t a theoretical exercise. We are convening state teams in person and connecting them with subject-matter experts to help design plans that work for their states. Over the year, we will support their progress and uplift promising policy and practices so other states can adopt them.
What real leadership looks like
Call it an all-hands-on-deck approach. The states that truly transform—as opposed to simply updating a target—show three traits: committed leadership, a sustained drumbeat that connects attainment to economic prosperity, and a laser-focus on students’ needs. As Courtney has noted, we need to support students as they actually live and learn today. Unlike the popular image of college students from years past, today’s students are often the first in their families to pursue higher education. They’re often working to afford school, navigating childcare, transportation, and housing challenges. When policy sees them clearly, attainment rises.
Expanding how we talk about value
We don’t talk enough about the many ways higher education’s value shows up beyond earning a bachelor’s degree. Value can be the high-school student earning college credits that lower time and cost to a degree. It can be an adult completing a GED or high school equivalency and entering a welding program that pays family-sustaining wages. It can be a nursing pathway that keeps a community healthy. It can be a short-term industry certification that stacks toward an associate or bachelor’s degree, offering immediate labor-market relevance and long-term adaptability. And in many communities, colleges and universities are themselves anchor employers, stabilizing local economies.
State goals should put these varied pathways under one umbrella while making the case—plainly and publicly—that the expectation of value is non-negotiable. That means agreeing on measures (what data will we use to judge “value” in our state?), setting targets (how many more residents will complete valuable credentials by year X?), and aligning resources (what programs will we fund or reform to get there?). Goals aren’t the finish line—they guide policy and investment.
Why now?
The timing is not incidental. We’ve seen 15 years of progress in attainment and a parallel rise in questions about cost and return on investment. Enrollment patterns are changing. Technology is reshaping work. Students are weighing tradeoffs around jobs, bills, and family responsibilities, and they’re asking us to make value visible: Show me the path. Make it affordable. Guarantee transfer. Help me finish.
States are already acting. Some are redefining their goals around credentials of value and embedding that concept into accountability and finance systems. Others are building seamless pathways from high school to community college to university, with employer-recognized credentials at each step. Still others are redesigning college admissions to demystify the process and communicate clearly to students and families that college is for them.
Lumina’s role: Follow the states, fuel the work
What role does Lumina play? We’re a convener, thought partner, and funder—but focused on supporting states. We connect them to the best thinking we can find, provide technical assistance, and invest where we can accelerate progress. We learn alongside states and lift their strategies so peers can learn from them. As I often say, all 50 states are laboratories of innovation, and the Collaborative helps them compare notes, share what’s working, and avoid dead ends.
It’s important to note that our role is secondary to the states. They know their people, economies, and institutions best. They decide which measures will build trust with residents and which policies will move students toward completion. Our job is to ensure that students stay at the center—and that value anchors every decision.
Where we’re headed
I’m energized to be working closely with a diverse set of states through the Attainment Collaborative. They vary in size, politics, and economies, but they share a conviction that higher education can transform lives when it delivers on its promise. Over the next year, these states will test ideas, refine measures, and build coalitions. We’ll learn a great deal from them, and we’ll share those lessons widely so others can move faster.
We can’t predict every twist in the economy or technology. But we can choose our north star: higher education goals that deliver value and lead to economic prosperity. We can commit to transparent measurement and to policies that follow the evidence. We can put students at the center and build pathways that are clear, affordable, and aligned to opportunity.
If we do that—state by state, community by community—we won’t just hit a target in 2040. We’ll rebuild trust in higher education by earning it, one valuable credential at a time. That’s the work. And it’s work worth doing.