Something strange is happening in America: confidence in higher education is creeping back up. And not just among the usual suspects. Republicans, independents, people with and without degrees, Black and Hispanic communities. We’re seeing a thaw across the board.
After nearly a decade of free fall, confidence in higher ed has ticked up six percentage points, according to the latest Lumina-Gallup survey. Forty-two percent of Americans now say they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in colleges and universities—up from 36 percent just last year.
On its face, this is good news, right? But let me challenge that. What if we’re misreading this uptick? What if this isn’t about institutions changing, but about focusing on the wrong signals or measuring the wrong things?
Rising confidence, misplaced focus
Confidence is rising across two-year and four-year colleges. Even Republicans, long the most skeptical, reported a jump: 12 points for two-year colleges, 6 points for four-year institutions.
But dig into why people feel more confident, and an odd pattern emerges. More people now cite innovation as a reason for their trust. More think U.S. colleges are among the world’s best. But few mention that higher education leads to better opportunities for graduates. That’s odd.
It suggests a shift from outcomes to optics. From “what college does for me” to “what college symbolizes.”
Could it be that higher ed is regaining symbolic status as a national asset, a source of discovery and innovation, without a clear focus on individual outcomes and tangible results?
Confidence is also personal
Here’s another layer: belief in higher ed isn’t just shaped by facts or politics, it’s shaped by personal experience. People with a degree are far more likely to be confident in higher education. Those without one? Less so. It’s not necessarily because they reject the value of education; it’s because they haven’t experienced it working for them.
This suggests that trust in institutions isn’t just ideological. It’s intimate. If college felt like a bridge to opportunity, you’re more inclined to trust it. If it felt out of reach or off-course, your skepticism grows.
People may increasingly recognize higher education’s societal good, its role in driving innovation, civic strength, and economic resilience. But to truly build lasting confidence, colleges and universities must create tangible value for individuals. We are not there yet.
Value creation: the missing piece
“Value creation” may sound like a corporate buzzword, but it carries powerful lessons for higher education. In business, it’s the idea that by meeting customer needs and delivering real value, companies generate demand, build loyalty, and ultimately profit. It’s a mindset grounded in listening, adapting, and relentlessly pursuing better outcomes.
Higher education must now adopt this same approach, obviously not to chase revenue, but because confidence in the sector is slipping, enrollments are falling, and the nation urgently needs more skilled talent. Colleges and universities must take a more careful look at what today’s students want and need and then deliver on those expectations with purpose and precision.
Institutions must ask if they’re truly meeting the needs of today’s students and the communities and opening doors to real opportunity to equip people for meaningful work, purposeful lives, and informed citizenship.
In this light, value creation in higher ed means crafting relevant, inclusive, and transformative experiences. The “profit” isn’t monetary, but it’s just as vital: lives changed, barriers broken, and the enduring contributions of graduates to individual economic prosperity, thriving communities, and a stronger nation.
From recovery to reciprocity
After years of losing trust and confidence due to scandals, cost, and perceived irrelevance, higher education might be starting to make small gains again. But those gains need to come with actual proof of the value they’ve created. Confidence isn’t a metric. It’s a relationship. And relationships thrive on reciprocity.
We can celebrate some of this positive news, but mistaking it for a full recovery will hold higher ed and the country back. The path forward is about earning trust in real, relevant, and radically new ways that create true value.
What would it look like for higher education to deserve confidence, not just measure it?
Let’s keep asking that question.