The so-called “enrollment cliff” we’ve been waiting a generation for is nearly here, and we now have clear and detailed projections to help us as we prepare to reach the edge.
The cliff—a drop in the number of people graduating high school and therefore looking toward college—can be attributed to fewer births 18 years prior. According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), this is a forecasted 13 percent decrease from 2025 through 2041.
WICHE’s latest report, the 11th edition of “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates,” shows a gradual drop from 2025’s record-high peak of 3.9 million.
That’s the good news.
We find more challenging news in the details, however:
- The proportion of graduates from racial and ethnic backgrounds, particularly multiracial students, will continue to increase. This increasing trend makes understanding trends for specific races or ethnicities complex.
- There’s no cohesive trend to the decline nationally, as each region will experience a distinctive decline or growth rate. Midwestern and northeastern states have already seen declines, while southern states will see growth followed by a slight decrease. The western part of the country will mirror national projections. Only 10 states are projected to grow from the national peak in 2025. These geographic differences will result in varying degrees of urgency. For nationally or federally focused actors, keeping geographic nuance in mind will be wise in the future.
- Finally, we must continue to monitor the decrease in elementary school-age students. WICHE’s report cited homeschooling, decreased immigration, and other disengagement from schooling (such as chronic absenteeism) for the decline. The most recent report projects about 750,000 fewer high school graduates through 2037 compared to the last edition (released in 2020), which relied on pre-COVID data.
To address this rapidly approaching cliff, we must look to a simplified higher education system that is more affordable, easier to navigate from start to finish, and has better services to support students to address access gaps.
WICHE’s findings provide critical detail about both current and future students. Decreasing high school graduation numbers, coupled with a growing number of students who have some college but no degree, certificate, or certification and an economy that requires a more educated and skilled workforce, portend a constrained future—one that demands our attention.
